Well – I stumbled about an article in (german) Wirtschaftswoche: Zukunft in Zahlen, actually it was the great picture of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita that took my attention. The article was getting me interested and I wanted more. I went internet to find out more about this professor who uses game theory to consult the CIA, politicians and companies.
He uses players and gives them a “role”. He puts data of input and output together and gives some basic indicators of their today position. Than his computer algorithms start finding the different possibilities and will come to an answer which shows the degree of yes or no in the questions. Sounds easy right? People who work with system theory might understand it without using the mathematics.
But as I found out reading articles about it, for most of the people it seems to be a magic tool and they do not like it. Most of the articles try to make him look like a fool, magician or gambler. So – he made his own web page, announcing his new book: “The Predicitioneer’s Game” and gave all the information from the origin source: himself.
If you read his blog, you might understand it. He tries to bring his transparency through. He investigated to make the GAME online. Try for yourself – if it is online again. But even if it is not running (like today) you can see the way he works: Scaling the behaviour according to power or no power. Every player gets a kind of indicator.
This is what we do in our seminars when we set out the players to be seen as Stakeholders. If you want to see the power game, find out about the each actors implicit or explicit attitude, resources, power, influence etc. Sometime it is more psychology than mathematics. But “Decision making is one of the last frontiers barely touched by science in day-to-day use.” And that encouraged Bueno de Mesquita to do it.
He said: “Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize–winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move.”
Perhaps somebody has already read the “Predictioneer’s Game” – let me know.