“It is too complex” is the common saying in situations that are not understood. Most of the time people refer to the verb complicated .. too many details, unclear and somehow overwhelming. Usually it is helpful to reduce the details and bring it in a higher perspective. That is where simulations come into place … so you see the interconnections between the parts. We do this to show the money flow, the value chain, the value creation. But we are not limited on mechanical dynamics inside a company. All actions in business are also related to the behaviour of our competitors, suppliers and customers. They have their own strategies and goals, sometimes with us, sometimes to optimise themselves.
This leads us into real complex situations, which you find in living systems. It is the interconnection between actors. Usually the actors behavior is not predictable and it is also not repeatable. (That is a problem for science – as you never create the same situation again.) But if you ever heard of Game theory – that is a tool to use. Today, game theory applies to a wide range of behavioral relations, and is now an umbrella term for the science of logical decision making in humans, animals, and computers. See graphic.
What you can do: think in scenarios and make a risk analysis – or, you try out in small steps.
At any market place in the world, you have complex situations – learn how to prepare your steps in advance, so when the time of your action is coming, you should have several options to act. Learn it in board game, learn this with Celemi Decision Base.
Foto: Decision Base Marketplace – the moment to choose the right customer.